The following is an update from the Honolulu Star Advertiser as of 5:40 pm Thursday:
Nolo strengthened into a hurricane this afternoon but the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has adjusted its forecast track with a substantial shift south of the Hawaiian islands. According to the forecast map, Nolo will approach closest to Hawaii island early Saturday morning but further south than was forecast earlier today. The updated forecast has Nolo starting to move west sooner, which would be good news for the Big Island and the rest of the state. Still, the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for Hawaii island remain in effect, as does the tropical storm watch for Maui County. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday on Hawaii island with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday, especially in areas of steep terrain, according to the Central Paicifc Hurricane Center.
“Residents should follow advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do so,” forecasters said. As of 5 p.m., Nolo was about 270 miles south of South Point and about 450 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Nolo had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and moving north-northeast at 5 mph. Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extend up to 30 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extend out 105 miles. It is expected to move faster to the north-northeast later tonight into Friday then take a sharp turn west on Saturday morning about 125 miles south of Hawaii island.
Despite the earlier turn west, Nolo is still expected to bring heavy rainfall — up to 30 inches or more in some locations — to the Big Island over the next several days. Nolo is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a major hurricane by Saturday evening with 115 mph maximum sustained winds. Enviornmental conditions including warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear are favorable to Nolo growing stronger, forecasters report. ”Nolo is expected to make a sharp turn to the west, or even west-southwest in the 48-72-hour timeframe,” forecasters said. “The track guidance has made a rather substantial southward shift compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted southward.”
The hurricane is forecast to continue growing stronger, peaking at 130 mph maximum sustained winds Sunday night over 300 miles southeast of Oahu, before turning northwest and weakening as it moves far west of Kauai on Tuesday. CPHC continues to warn of the following possible effects to the islands from Nolo through the weekend:
>> Rain: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected. For Maui, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.
>> Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The surge on Hawaii island could reach 1 to 3 feet if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
>> Surf: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east-and south shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hawaii County officials, meanwhile, said they will open five more emergency sheltersFriday morning, while Maui County officials plan to open emergency shelters Friday on Maui and Molokai ahead of Nolo.
Here are some planning and preparation tips to follow:
- Sign up for HNL Alert by following this link: HNL Alert Tell your family, friends, and neighbors.
- Create a plan and know what to pack and/or ensure is safe in the event of a major disaster. The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency has published a list of resources that can help you plan according to your personal situation. The Department of Emergency Management recommends having a two-week emergency supply kit as well as a ‘Go-Bag’ in the event you have to evacuate. If you know of any vulnerable family, friends, or neighbors – consider helping them to prepare as they will have additional, specific, needs that need to be considered prior to, during, and after a major disaster.
- Determine how you can harden your home and if you should shelter in place. This is a link to the Homeowner’s Handbook that is published by the University of Hawaii Sea Grant program. Page 59 is a chart that summarizes whether or not – based on the date of and type of construction – you should shelter in place. The book can be downloaded and is a very good reference for disaster preparedness planning. If you do need to evacuate, determine if you have a friend or family member whose home can be a shelter. If there is no safe option, please watch the news and/or check the Department of Emergency Management (DEM) website to find out which evacuation shelters will be open in your area and if its pet friendly.
- Understand what to do in the event you hear the emergency siren. Here is a link to the Emergency Siren reference page – which contains the locations of all sirens. When you hear the siren, turn on the radio or local television and listen for more instructions should it sound due to an emergency. Sign up for HNL Alert to receive custom notifications.
- Get trained to help the community post disaster. The Community Emergency Response Team (aka CERT) is a program that encourages ‘neighbors helping neighbors’. Should there be a statewide disaster, first responders and the government’s ability to respond to all areas affected will be limited. Communities will have to rely on its own residents to work together to address the immediate needs. Upcoming classes are available on the City and County of Honolulu website.
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